OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

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tornitore45
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OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by tornitore45 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:04 pm

Why do I post this here?
Because the people on this board cover just about the entire human knowledge, a Wikipedia of smart.
Plus is the only place I go and trust.

Virus come and virus fade away. What is the mechanism that abate the epidemic?
Granted that a cure or a vaccine can be found and containment will abate it but even left to natural evolution it usually goes out without intervention.

The best answer I can think is that when the entire population has been infected all is left is immunized and dead.
Obviously this is an extreme hypothetical scenario, but before modern medicine it appears the only evolution of an epidemic.
Like a fire burning out of fuel, at least in reach of flames.
Mauro Gaetano
in Austin TX

John Hasler
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by John Hasler » Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:30 pm

This is true, but it is not necessary that everyone be infected. As the fraction of the population that has had the disease and is now immune increases it becomes harder and harder for the disease to spread. This is because members of the set of vulnerable individuals become less and less likely to come into contact with members of the set of currently infected individuals as the relative size of both sets decreases. They are buffered from each other by the large set of immunes. When the effective reproduction number drops below one the disease dies out without having infected everyone.

"Containment" alone is not expected to reduce the total number of infections. Its primary purpose is to "flatten the curve" so that fewer people are sick at any one time, thereby reducing the load on medical and other services. It also will give more time for development of treatments and vaccines.

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tornitore45
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by tornitore45 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:03 pm

Got it. I knew somebody would have a sensible explanation.
Is a typical problem of reaching an equilibrium with a threshold on ability to jump the gap. The ocean is growing, the islands are shrinking and the boat have a fixed range. Or another way to put it the immunized set is growing and dispersing as separating barrier between the shrinking sets of infected and at-risk. I like to turn math problems into geometry/topology when possible.
Mauro Gaetano
in Austin TX

spro
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by spro » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:13 pm

This is particularly nasty. We people were suffering from something in 2019 . Already had the "flu" shot. Something else. Not allergies. This virus was let out last year and a killer.

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liveaboard
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by liveaboard » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:17 am

Stay in your workshops for a while; I guess most of us are fairly happy to be alone with our machines anyway.

I know I am.

Take care, everyone. Too much caution might make you feel and look silly, but it won't kill you.

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SteveM
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by SteveM » Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:08 pm

Here's an interesting article on how it could spread under different scenarios, with interesting animated models:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... zPJEXHyZzo

It's is all randomly generated, so each time you run it, it will be slightly different.

Steve

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BigDumbDinosaur
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by BigDumbDinosaur » Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:53 pm

As someone suggested on a news site, shut off the TV, put away your phone and take a contemplative stroll in the woods. We're being inundated with news about COVID-19, much of it hysterical. COVID-19 spreads the same way as other viruses of its type, which means good hygiene—as well as common sense—will go a long way toward containment.

As John noted, viruses have a life-cycle based upon the rate at which other organisms gain immunity. You are exposed to a plethora of bacteria and viruses every day without getting sick, thanks to your body's ability to generate antibodies against those pathogens. Most healthy individuals will respond to COVID-19 exposure in the same way by generating antibodies against the virus. Many exposed individuals will never know they were exposed unless they develop symptoms. Some folks who were exposed will become sick, and a relatively small percentage of that group will succumb. That's how it works and that is how it has worked since our distant ancestors decided to climb down from the trees.
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BigDumbDinosaur
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by BigDumbDinosaur » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:15 pm

spro wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:13 pm
This is particularly nasty. We people were suffering from something in 2019 . Already had the "flu" shot. Something else. Not allergies. This virus was let out last year and a killer.
Your statement is alarmist. All viruses are "killers" if the host organism cannot resist the attack. Most healthy people will be able to resist the effects of COVID-19.
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liveaboard
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by liveaboard » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:59 pm

"Most"
More than half.

Sure, the human race won't be wiped out.
very reassuring.

Actually, the mortality rate seems to be holding at around 2%. that's really very high for a virus that is so incredibly infectious.
Maybe I'm also being alarmist; but if the house is on fire, there needs to be an alarm.

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warmstrong1955
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by warmstrong1955 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:37 pm

Well......I prefer not to get it. Too old to push my luck.
And hiding out in my shop, well, that's what I do anyway. :) So for me, no change.

If I do go anywhere, it'll be in my Jeep, where there isn't anybody around anyway.

The Nevada state nickname changed yesterday, from 'The Silver State', to 'Sorry....But We're Closed'. All non-essential businesses rolled up the sidewalks.
The mines still be a-mining, but the casinos, among most everything else, are down for at least 30 days.

Bill
Today's solutions are tomorrow's problems.

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tornitore45
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by tornitore45 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:42 pm

Old, retired, spend most of the day alone in the shop. More likely to get a bloody finger than the virus.
We never socialized or party much, but enjoy have some professional to cook for us. We will miss restaurant for a while. If push come to shove I think our pantry can feed us for at least a month. And when we run out is a good excuse to order from https://www.supermarketitaly.com/
Mauro Gaetano
in Austin TX

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SteveM
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Re: OP even for the Junk Drawer - Corona virus

Post by SteveM » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:00 pm

For those of you able to, donate blood.

So many blood drives have been cancelled that the blood supply is getting low.

The odds of catching something at a blood drive is likely pretty low considering the borderline obsessive compulsive cleaning, wiping and disinfecting they do as a normal routine.

Steve

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